If there’s one constant in the Residence and Citizenship by Investment industry, it’s change. Programmes evolve, prices creep upward, governments recalibrate. Sometimes, doors simply close.
In the past year alone, we’ve seen historic programmes like the Canada Start‑Up Visa (though they have hinted at a new offering in 2026), Malta’s Citizenship by Investment programme, and Spain’s Golden Visa officially phased out. At the same time, jurisdictions that remain open (from programmes in the Caribbean to Portugal’s Golden Visa) are tightening rules, adjusting pricing, and refining who they want (and don’t want) as future citizens or residents.
This isn’t coincidence. And it isn’t temporary.
For investors watching from the sidelines, the real question isn’t which programme is best; it’s whether waiting has ever truly been the best strategy.
Closures Don’t Happen Overnight (Even When They Feel Like They Do)
In my experience, programmes don’t disappear in dramatic overnight announcements. They erode quietly first.
First, caps are introduced. Next, processing slows. After that, due diligence measures tighten, investment thresholds increase, and, finally, public opinion starts to change. By the time the formal closure is announced, insiders have seen it coming for months. Sometimes years.
The Spain Golden Visa is a good example. The writing was on the wall long before the Golden Visa officially ended in April 2024. Housing pressure, political optics, and public debate made it difficult – nigh impossible – to justify a programme that (fairly or not) became shorthand to locals for “foreign money buying local homes.”
Malta followed a similar trajectory. Scrutiny from the EU didn’t arrive all at once; it built steadily, until continuation became untenable in its existing form (it has since been revamped into a Residence by Investment Programme).
And Canada, I hear you ask? The Start‑Up Visa didn’t so much close as narrowed itself into a very different animal; one that now only suits a much smaller, more specific applicant profile.
The pattern matters. Because it’s repeating elsewhere.
Why Governments Are Changing the Rules
From a policy perspective, this all makes sense.
Governments are under pressure to:
- Evince meticulous compliance standards
- Address domestic affordability concerns
- Align investment immigration programmes with long‑term economic value, not just capital inflow
In short, generally they’re moving from access to selectivity.
The Caribbean has felt the effects markedly. Price increases, extra due diligence layers, mandatory interviews, and tighter timelines aren’t punitive, they’re corrective. These programmes are maturing; and with maturity, comes regulation.
Portugal’s Golden Visa evolution tells a similar story. Real estate was once the headline act. Today, it’s been quietly ushered off stage, replaced by funds, innovation, and economic contributions that better align with national priorities. These new avenues may not have the pizzazz of Real Estate investments, but they’re now the reality of the programme.
None of this is random. It’s policy catching up with popularity.
The Cost of Waiting Is Rarely Neutral
I get it; in theory, waiting can feel prudent. More information. More options. Less risk.
But in practice? Waiting in RCBI almost always comes with a price tag.
Sometimes it’s literal: Higher investment thresholds, increased government fees, or additional compliance costs. Other times it’s structural: longer processing times, more difficult eligibility standards, or the removal of once‑attractive pathways.
Unfortunately, there’s a quiet irony here. Many investors wait for certainty, only to discover that it arrives in the form of a closure notice.
History tells me that the best outcomes belong to those who acted when a programme was stable, established, and still politically defensible. Not when it became headline news.
My Bias Working in the Industry (Let’s Be Honest)
Here’s my bias, stated plainly: Residence and Citizenship by Investment is not about timing the market perfectly; it’s about positioning.
The most successful investors I work with don’t chase the “last open programme.” They assess (ahead of time):
- Political sustainability
- National & International perception
- Compliance trajectory
- Long‑term utility (not just acquisition speed)
They also understand that governments rarely add benefits over time. Programmes typically refine, restrict, and reprice.
If that sounds pessimistic, it’s not meant to be. I’m just being realistic.
Mobility, optionality, and security are becoming more valuable, not less. Governments know this. And they are pricing accordingly.
So, Is Waiting Ever the Best Choice?
There is no black & white “yes or no” answer to this question. Occasionally? Yes. All the time? Definitely not.
If a programme is clearly misaligned with your goals, poorly structured, or politically unstable, restraint is the only thing that makes sense. Patience can be strategic.
But waiting by default (for something cheaper, faster, or more generous)? Honestly, history tells us that is a losing bet.
Because the truth is, in this industry, the window rarely widens. It narrows. Slowly at first – then all at once.
The better question, perhaps, isn’t “Should I wait?” but rather “What would I regret more: acting now, or explaining later why I didn’t?”
And if the past year has taught us anything, it’s that today’s ‘safe to think about’ programme has a habit of becoming tomorrow’s case study.
History doesn’t repeat itself perfectly; but where Residence and Citizenship by Investment is concerned, it rhymes more often than most investors expect.
If you’re interested in exploring your Residence and Citizenship by Investment options, or would like to discuss anything in this article in more detail, please reach out to me directly at Selma.brahimi@passportlegacy.com or on WhatsApp at +971 56 851 0476.
